Global Economy: Slow lane, stable rates

• Real gross domestic product growth in the United States (US) decelerated in the second quarter of 2026 (April-June) to an annualized 1.5% from 2.1% in the previous quarter (January-March)
• In July, several key central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, held interest rates steady
• According to the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, supply chain pressures eased in July due to declining stockpiling and transport pressures

Growth softened across major global economies in the second quarter of 2026, including the United States (annualized 1.5% vs 2.1% in the first quarter), the United Kingdom (0.4% vs 0.6%), Japan (1.1% vs 1.9%) and China (4.3% vs 5%). The eurozone bucked the trend, with growth rising to 0.4% from 0%.

Globally, the International Monetary Fund expects growth of 3.0% in 2026, according to its July update of the World Economic Outlook, lower than the average growth of 3.5% recorded in 2024 and 2025. Growth is expected to be weighed down by supply shocks stemming from the West Asia crisis, although investments in artificial intelligence are likely to provide some cushion.