Global Economy: Momentum holds

• Estimate of United States gross domestic product growth in the second quarter (April-June) was revised up 70 basis points to an annualized 2.2%
• Inflation in the Eurozone rose to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, driven by higher energy and services prices
• Global energy prices jumped 25.7% on-month in September, according to World Bank data, amid renewed escalation of the conflict in West Asia. As a result, overall commodity prices were up 17.1%

Global growth has held up better than expectations despite a surge in crude oil prices and worldwide trade disruptions. Investments related to artificial intelligence (AI) and fiscal measures to mitigate crude-driven inflation have kept demand relatively resilient.

S&P Global revised up its global growth forecast for calendar year 2026 10 basis points (bps) to 3.2% as economic activity held up. Growth will, however, be lower than the 3.4% in 2025, with energy shocks and policy uncertainty expected to impact growth adversely.

Among major economies, S&P Global’s growth projections for this year were revised up for the United States (US; 10 bps to 2.2%), Eurozone (40 bps to 0.9%), the United Kingdom (UK; 40 bps to 1.3%) and Japan (20 bps to 0.8%). Barring the US, the economies are expected to see lower growth against 2025. The forecast for China was lowered.

Inflation projections have been raised, reflecting higher price pressures. Inflation will likely surge across key economies this year, prompting central banks to raise rates.